The Coming Scramble for Survival

Necessity is the midwife of devolution. Invention's mother is running out of resources, so she is reverting to the tried and tested. Her next brood will be a passel of low-tech survival tools. System design and implementation takes about a decade and that is about all the time we have before nature puts her foot down (if the rate of Arctic sea ice melt is a reliable leading indicator). The rate of ocean warming will increase promptly after the ice is gone. Coastal cities will experience a markedly more rapid increase in flooding events. It will finally become clear to the man on the street that we haven't done what it takes to turn the tide and cannot spend another decade working on it. The new systems that we could have had ready to withdraw CO2 from the atmosphere will not be available in sufficient quantities to prevent a great die-off. Suffering will move people to act individually and locally and one of the only negative CO2 tools available to the average Joe will be the biochar that they can make on their own. Enduring the diminished resource future will, however, carry the built-in solution of doing less of what has long been damaging the climate. 

Below, a list from Drawdown.org shows 71 solutions before it gets to biochar, about one-third of which are scalable to the human individual level. Collective activity won't entirely cease and the ultra-wealthy will still be able to command some sizeable projects, but beyond what takes place in the next few years, there won't be much civic initiative to avoid the continuation of today's burgeoning apocalyptic chain-of-events. Debt levels keep rising and all it will take is a crisis for everything to collapse in a way that will take a century or more to heal. Some places "get it" more than others, though, so living in a state governed by the cognoscenti may allow some of today's heroes to continue a more efficacious collective fight against global warming into the next saeculum. If so, a few people may survive to perpetuate the human species.

1 Refrigerant Management 2 Wind Turbines (Onshore) 3 Reduced Food Waste 4 Plant-Rich Diet 5 Tropical Forests 6 Educating Girls 7 Family Planning 8 Solar Farms 9 Silvopasture 10 Rooftop Solar 11 Regenerative Agriculture 12 Temperate Forests 13 Peatlands 14 Tropical Staple Trees 15 Afforestation 16 Conservation Agriculture 17 Tree Intercropping 18 Geothermal 19 Managed Grazing 20 Nuclear 21 Clean Cookstoves 22 Wind Turbines (Offshore) 23 Farmland Restoration 24 Improved Rice Cultivation 25 Concentrated Solar 26 Electric Vehicles 27 District Heating 28 Multistrata Agroforestry 29 Wave and Tidal 30 Methane Digesters (Large) 31 Insulation 32 Ships 33 LED Lighting (Household) 34 Biomass 35 Bamboo 36 Alternative Cement 37 Mass Transit 38 Forest Protection 39 Indigenous Peoples’ Land Management 40 Trucks 41 Solar Water 42 Heat Pumps 43 Airplanes 44 LED Lighting (Commercial) 45 Building Automation 46 Water Saving - Home 47 Bioplastic 48 In-Stream Hydro 49 Cars 50 Cogeneration 51 Perennial Biomass 52 Coastal Wetlands 53 System of Rice Intensification 54 Walkable Cities 55 Household Recycling 56 Industrial Recycling 57 Smart Thermostats 58 Landfill Methane 59 Bike Infrastructure 60 Composting 61 Smart Glass 62 Women Smallholders 63 Telepresence 64 Methane Digesters (Small) 65 Nutrient Management 66 High-speed Rail 67 Farmland Irrigation 68 Waste-to-Energy 69 Electric Bikes 70 Recycled Paper 71 Water Distribution 72 Biochar 73 Green Roofs 74 Trains 75 Ridesharing 76 Micro Wind 77 Energy Storage (Distributed) 77 Energy Storage (Utilities) 77 Grid Flexibility 78 Microgrids 79 Net Zero Buildings 80 Retrofitting

Desertification Matters

It seems that Greece has led western civilization into the first turning of our next saeculum; into a time of calm and lassitude. According to Anne Applebaum,

The protracted Greek crisis has led to apathy, exhaustion and a deep conviction that all politics is corrupt. There isn’t huge enthusiasm for any political projects right now.

Not all first turnings feel so jaded. Our last one was a time of buoyant confidence and coming together. That was after Johnny came marching home from World War II. Greece must have ended that cycle much the same as they are this one: exhausted and apathetic.

Perhaps their repeated defeat is partly a consequence of a longer-term problem: loss of arable land. I've never been to Greece, but can attest from my week touring nearby Croatia that the impoverishment of the soil on what had once been productive farms is widespread and grievous to behold. Both countries have declared themselves to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification (UNCCD) to be affected by desertification. Almost all the other countries in Southern Europe have done so, as well.

Both Italy and Spain have experienced political turmoil this year. Perhaps they will go the way of Greece as things shake out. Climate change deserves some credit for pushing desertification, but mostly, socio-economic factors are to blame. Desertification usually occurs over centuries, while the secular cycle takes less than a century. The end of a saeculum can come with a triumph or a defeat. Desertification only makes the latter more likely.

With the U.S. crisis coming to a head as the end of our 4th turning approaches, we aren't bound to the fates of Southern European states, but desertification from climate change on top of other factors is afflicting some of our key economic regions. Like Europe, we will have states that dry up and crumble and others that emerge relatively victorious. We saw a similar dynamic play out at the end of the Civil War.

The rain may fall on the just and unjust alike, but climate change is not an equal opportunity dispenser of rain. Desertification is not the only factor affecting the fate of civilizations, but it will eventually bring down and break apart any nation, especially those that ignore it. 

The Greatest

Environmental protection and restoration are the highest calling a person can have. Ministers administer and kings reign, but environmentalists serve the embodiment of God in all of his earthly creation. Those who would be greatest must be the servants of all creatures; they must be environmentalists.

Caring for the environment benefits both non-humans and humans. When, in the course of restoring nature, dilemmas arise over sacrifices for nature's sake, it could be that society has departed from the way. Remedial actions that seem harsh to humanity may be part of a necessary retreat from something that is even harsher to non-humans. Ultimately, a return to Eden would benefit humans more than any other outcome.

The world is being so overrun by enough clueless, heedless, and competitive people that little Edens will not be enough to save most of us from a mounting onslaught of disasters, insults, and injuries from Gaia's reactions. Universal repentance over diet , transportation, and work (in sum, modern life with all its negative consequences ) would have to occur for the world to avoid such tribulation. If we manage to repent over our unsettledness and downshift to a pastoral lifestyle, then perhaps we could still include a bit of meat in our diets with climate-smart agriculture.

Whatever measures we wind up taking to survive the anthropocene, it seems that cities should become virtual prisons and that only environmentalists and their subjects should be allowed to roam freely and keep property outside those confines. Environmentalists should be as angels keeping watch over the realms outside the domain of heavy human settlement. Suburbia should be returned to nature or sold to farmers. Farmers should all be lovers of the Earth, unlike the deriden rednecks who see the earth as a thing to be conquered.

The numbers of people in cities vs. the countryside are not as important as the personal qualities that suit an individual to be in one or the other domain. Current policy in the U.S. is to drive down the number of small farms through an incentive system that favors industrial (read "redneck") farmers who exploit the impoverished land. Disincentivizing industrial agriculture would be the first step toward reducing farm sizes and populating the countryside with environmentalists. May it be that the new Farm Bill leans that direction (though I see no indication that it will).

It should come as no surprise that environmental restoration is not an especially lucrative occupation, yet one may be deeply enriched by it. Depending on how close one is to the natural world, this connection can offer resources aplenty. With such knowledge, self-reliance is attainable (even self-actualization).

I would be sadly myopic were I to claim the title of Environmentalist. I can barely call myself a Master Gardener and a Master Watershed Steward, but, among those whose efforts directly deal with eco-systems, Environmentalist rightly belongs to the likes of those who restore landscapes and rivers to wild conditions. I merely have experience in making healthy soil, growing plants and fungi, and keeping runoff in check. It's a start, but with my few remaining years, my contribution may fall far short of that of the greatest among men.

Oh WELS

My recent affiliation with a conservative wing of the Lutheran denomination called the Wisconsin Evangelical Lutheran Synod was a hangover from my earlier tendencies toward charismatism, which eventually landed me and my young family in a cult led by one Rev. Beatrice R. Hicks. I left the cult because it disappointed in innumerable ways, but when I moved with my second wife and family to our current locale in Maryland, this WELS Lutheran church was handily only a few miles away. We joined and were functionaries through many years. Now, it's time to grow up some more.

I have to draw a line on the matter of creation and the WELS' literal interpretation of the Genesis story. In reading Ishmael by Daniel Quinn, I've come to understand the implications of allowing oneself to ignore the question of evolution and prehistoric man. I've also read an irrefutable volume by David Cunningham on the geological evidence for an ancient Earth called, The Rocks Don't Lie. I've always figured evolution and geologic aging to be true, but suspended judgement so as to not rock the boat. I avoided the issues because they seemed irrelevant.

These issues are important enough that I must walk away from WELS. Quinn surmises that the whole mess that the world is in today is a result of the growth of agro-industrialism. Yet, the Genesis story, taken at face value, would posit that there was never any other way of dwelling on the earth (except for the first family before their fall). Only when you factor in the millions of years prior to the rise of agrarianism does it become clear that agro-industrialism was a relatively recent curse from which so many of today's problems were spawned.

For a while, I thought I could hang around and try to convince others and possibly even the pastor of my former congregation to open up their minds to the evidence of science, but after reading an article in the church's rag, Forward in Christ, by some numb-nuts Ph.D. (in "creation science", I'll guess) spouting biblical literacy as the only standard, I realized any efforts to change this church would be hopeless. Time for me to let go, leaving them to amble toward extinction utterly blind to the disservice they do to the planet.

Whatever is next in my religious journey may be presaged by the evening assembly we attended last week at the National City Christian Church in Washington, D.C. Reclaiming Jesus was the theme. The service and subsequent demonstration in front of the White House gave us a chance to listen to other sects' take on current issues. The formal declaration, which I mainly support, is more in tune with reality than the deliberate ignorance of fundamentalist sects like WELS.

Going Tropical

I've got rain on the brain. After listening to a local presentation last week on "Gardening in a Changing Climate," the monsoon arrived on cue. We have received 15" of rain in the past week. Normal is 4" for the entire month. More intense storms are an expected consequence of global warming and increased rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic states is the general outlook from climate models.

Time to brush up my knowledge forest gardening, but more particularly agroforestry (or its more ecological cousin, climate eco-forestry). Trees need a lot of water and, with our increasing rainfall, growing trees should be easier here. Ironically, my understanding of sustainable forestry leads me to conclude that I have too many trees growing on most of my property. That is, they, like people, over-propagate when left unattended, making life more difficult for all of them. Culling selected trees to grow mushrooms and make biochar will open up space for many of the more desirable trees and for planting new species.

The species added could be selected for their usefulness as food, lumber, fuel, or in making biochar and even bio-oils. All of these have potential to draw down atmospheric CO2. For example, according to a 2014 study, building with wood could reduce annual global emissions of carbon dioxide by 14 to 31 percent. Another, more recent, study estimates that drawdown to the 1.5 ⁰C increase stated as the Paris agreement goal is completely within the capacity of a biocarbon-producing world if everyone does their part with the land under their care. According to Project Drawdown, an acre of multistrata agroforestry can achieve rates of carbon sequestration that are comparable to those of afforestation (ranked 15th by Drawdown ) and forest restoration—2.8 tons per acre per year, on average. This fits my situation well, since multistrata systems are well suited to steep slopes.

My choice for a biocarbon crop might be bamboo. According to Albert Bates, bamboo is the second fastest growing plant on Earth, after microalgae. It will double its biomass every year if conditions are right. Running varieties can expand as far out from their base in one year as they are tall, and do it again the next year, and the next. Some edible shoot running types that would be good in zone 7b are the 10' Chishima-zasa (Sasa kurilensis) and the 30' Sweetshoot Bamboo (Phyllostachys dulcis).  They grow in full sun or partial shade and make great barriers - just the thing to avoid panic attacks by neighbors over distant sightings of my flame cap kiln or TLUD oven in operation.

Strategic Corporals

As societies devolve into tribes, "think globally - act locally" will make a comeback (at least the principle, if not the phrase). In social terms, it could be revised to "think universally, act locally". "Global" has political and geographic connotations, whereas "universal" is the word used, for example, in the U.N.'s declaration that describes the rights of every human. We must think both globally and universally, but action always remains local.

"Local" pertains to one's domain, which may be large or small, but is limited by how familiar one is with its many internal relationships and issues. Intimate familiarity with these is essential to applying one's global/universal perspective, otherwise important elements may be overlooked or incorrectly assumed, leading to negative outcomes. Likewise, neglecting to gain a global/universal perspective can lead to counterproductive results due to unreckoned forces outside one's local domain.

Acting locally is normally all one can do. To act globally or at any other level outside one's domain is to violate the sovereignty of others. There are usually repercussions. Acting non-locally also requires resources sufficient to conduct expeditions, expend energy, and/or transmit information outside one's borders. The logistics are often too costly to justify anything but local action.

Thinking globally does not require acting globally. Disaster aid outside one's borders will become rare as global economic growth stalls and climate change claims more and more victims. Alleviating the burden of others in their distress is wonderful, but the logistics tails will be too long for most to contribute, and tribes contiguous to afflicted areas may have cause for letting their neighbors suffer.

Thinking globally and acting locally entails having a grasp of a global problem, and then acting within one's domain to address the problem as if the local solution was going to make the difference in the global problem. This approach is particularly relevant to environmental problems since every location has unique geographical characteristics that demand tailored solutions. Similarly, each locale has unique political and cultural characteristics that necessitate tailored corrective actions in the social sphere.

Conventional thinking says that global problems must be solved by international agreement and cooperation. The subtle shift of the Think Globally - Act Locally approach is that no agreement is necessary, though understanding of common predicaments is. The dissolution of national governments and international authority that appears to be likely in the next few years will leave their fractured replacements to operate on the faith of this approach. A new world order could emerge that no longer tolerates extreme imbalances, but places local sovereignty above imperial ambitions.