Showing posts with label military. Show all posts
Showing posts with label military. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Only War can Save Us Now

When Senator John McCain ridiculed Navy Secretary Ray Mabus by stating, “You are the Secretary of the Navy, not the Secretary of Energy,” over his efforts to shift the Navy to a "Green Fleet," I was  glad I hadn't voted for him for President. Mabus had the right idea about using the military to address the energy-cum-climate crisis, he just didn't take it far enough. In fact, the military can be excused for burning through our last drops of oil, as long as they do it for the sake of stopping egregious greenhouse gas pollution that could soon kill us all.

A Green friend of mine seemed a little perplexed when she heard that my background included diplomas from two war colleges. She asked, "what do you study at a war college?" to which I tritely replied, "how to make war.  A useful skill ... if you happen to find yourself in one." In terms of our current plight, the problem with war is not that it is the epitome of wasted energy, but that it is undertaken for the sake of feeding our energy addiction. Any power that threatens a fossil-fuel dependent economic paradigm is who we tend to fight.

We have come to the point that the only thing that will save the current crop of humans from widespread die-off is a rapid reorientation to reducing our collective carbon footprint and reversing whatever damage we can. Perhaps even more urgently, we need to exclude the built environment from squatting on the most sensitive ecological areas and half of the earth's landmass. Short of going to war, that all involves too much self-imposed hardship. Make a war out of it, and patriotic fervor overcomes that chariness.

No other human enterprise is as effective as war in eliciting heroic activity by vast numbers of participants. War is the only institution capable of commanding great numbers of people to willingly endure suffering for the sake of victory. All the Green solutions put forth for overcoming our climate crisis involve widespread physical hardship, which can only be self-imposed through a warring mentality. (Geoengineering solutions' appeal is their supposed avoidance of hardship, but they carry potentially catastrophic risk or are unsustainable.)

The war we need is not the pitiful "War on Climate Change" of past administrations. Almost nobody joins a war so ephemeral. War must have physical objectives and culminate in the breaking of an enemy's will. War can be fought in cyberspace, but it has its foundation in meatspace. It must be carried out militarily, not by a loose-knit gaggle of volunteers.

Game theory would probably help in planning the War Against Climate Pollution. Just as we had to do all the second guessing required to prevent a nuclear war and understand how to execute one, we should model actions, effects, and reactions of forcing other countries' hands in an effort to prevent runaway greenhouse gas emissions. Game theory would also show us how much fossil fueled power we could cede in winding down our own emissions as others relinquish theirs.

Diplomacy should lead in attempting to resolve causes of excess pollution. Information exchanges and economic arrangements should also be set up before resorting to military action. After sufficient warning, military actions, if necessary, should be initially strategic and carried out with cyber weapons to, for example, shut down production at a plant producing HFC's.  If the violations don't cease, kinetic attacks could be used. Bloodshed should be avoided as much as possible. Strong arming is the main approach.

Targeted infrastructure would include coal power plants, oil refineries, concrete plants, fertilizer factories,and other point sources of pollution. What we are interdicting here are actually weapons of mass destruction, when you consider how greenhouse gas emissions added to the current inventory may push temperatures past the level of human tolerance. We should avoid taking on countries having the ability to fight back in any serious way. Escalation is not what we want. It detracts from the real goal - stopping pollution.

However, such a self-righteous war on pollution from the U.S. will not last unless we begin taking a stand on reducing our own emissions. We have to stick to the Paris Agreement, ratified, rejected, or not. The military can stay strong for as long as needed to complete the mission, but they too will have to diminish once things settle down and other great powers dispense with their own ambitions. As the world burns, the folly of dominance and colonialism will become evident. There is no need to fear dominance by China or Russia. Any incursion on their parts would be short-lived as distance becomes more tyrannical with the elimination of U.S. oil exports and the end of global trade. Ultimately, the only way to win this war is to lose the same things we seek to deny others.

Once we have stopped reliance on fossil fuels, everyone can then carry on with their decidedly more physically demanding lives, sharing stories around the TLUD of how they fought and won in the war against the Polluters. Their young listeners will look to the day when they can match these deeds of glory by pushing out the Squatters.


Friday, March 17, 2017

Losses in Space

Artificial intelligence, though developed with benevolent purposes, might soon open up IT to catastrophes that would turn us away from technological overreach. Combining AI with robotics raises the possibility of a Frankenstein scenario. An intelligent computer that wanted to solve the world's problems might conclude, through machine learning, that we humans must be culled in order for life on Earth to continue. Inside a brigade of self-arming robots, that knowledge could spell trouble. Yoshimi, we may need you soon.

On the way to creating Frankenstein's monster, intelligent computers will be employed in fights against one another. Most IT systems are developed with information security and anti-tampering tools added on, rather than included from conception. As a result, early versions are often more vulnerable to hacking than those which have matured. If AI systems incorporate self-taught protection from cyberattacks, the cycle is likely to become shorter, provided the system's intelligence doesn't become impaired by prior attacks.

A red cell running progressively more sophisticated attacks on the system would build its immunity prior to going live. The red cell will eventually consist mainly of an AI computer dedicated to giving new AI systems experience in identifying and defeating cyber attacks. Successful attacks from a real adversary would be for keeps. Those with an edge in cyber warfare stand to be able to destroy their target's system or hijack it for their own purposes.

To illustrate the stakes involved in cyber warfare, consider the fact that there are about 1,000 satellites in use which feed us information about earth and relay communications around the globe. Additionally, there are about 350 which perform like functions for militaries. Three major powers (China, Russia, and the U.S.) own two-thirds of all these. Not only could a cyber attacker steal information, but they could corrupt it with bad data, or disable or even steal the satellite. Massive cyber warfare in space could set back global coordination, navigation, and weather forecasts half a century (though, initially, those would be regressed even more for the period of time it takes people to relearn many black arts). War in space is war on many nations' way of life. That's why, in their platform,
The Green Party calls for the end of Space militarization and opposes any form of space-based military aggression. We embrace peaceful Space exploration as a means for all people on this planet to work together. The benefits of inspired education are well worth the investment in peaceful Space exploration.
Though we might forswear space war, there is no guarantee other players will cooperate. To be prepared, do we accept a way of life that doesn't depend on information coming from satellites? Do we enlarge the battlefield to retaliate in kind?

In spite of what the President's budget proposes to cut, in the near future the only aspect of satellite technology that matters much will be earth sensors. When empires become passé, there will be little need for military satellites. Global communications may not be so important in another decade when we walk in the dark shadow of peak everything. Environmental information, however, will be crucial for safety and restoring balance to ecosystems. Outer space should be a place of wonder and inspiration, not shock and awe.
Andromeda Galaxy by NASA

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Greens are On Deck

Green Partiers were not in the audience, but The Charles Koch Foundation CEO Brian Hooks said something that should be very encouraging to them at the Koch network semi-annual retreat last weekend. After describing how Barack Obama's election to President was a backlash against the failures of the George W. Bush administration, and Trump's election a backlash against Obama's failures, he predicted that we could see the same thing amplified after the Trump administration debacle. Hooks said,
 “If things don’t get better, then we should expect history to repeat itself. We should expect that the political pendulum will swing with even more force to the other direction the next time. With people even further to the left than Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren! There are people right now who are prepared for the next four years to be a failure, people who cannot wait to be there to address the frustrated American people and introduce them to their own vision of radical hope and change. So the stakes are extremely high.”
The Libertarians/Kochists will certainly not be on the rise when the pendulum swings from right to left. That leaves the Green Party as the most likely party to succeed the Trumpists in four or eight years!

Aside from pondering the political pendulum on my own before Brian Hooks described it so well, another reason I put great hope in our next presidential turnover is the theory of the secular cycle of American history described in the 1997 book, The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe. After the current fourth turning, which should end with the tRump administration, we will begin the secular cycle anew. The resolution of the crisis of the current phase will set us up for the beginning of the next 80 to 100 year secular cycle. Our next 20 to 25 year phase (the new cycle's first "turning") should be far less turbulent.

There comes a galvanizing event in a fourth turning which unifies national resolve and the problem we then join together to solve serves as a proxy for all of the major ills and threats facing us. To me, it looks like climate change could become that nexus, even within the span of tRump's presidency. Something worse than Hurricane Katrina, perhaps, would bring climate change to the fore. The Green Party would rapidly rise in esteem.

Photo by peterkreder
Then again, it doesn't have to be climate change that gives the Greens their turn at bat. The Green Party also holds very antimilitaristic ideals. Should we become involved in a devastating war (as all of our fourth turning forefathers have), the nation may afterward turn utterly away from militancy and bring the Greens in for assurance that our national security policy will embrace pacifism.

Whatever culminating problem the fourth turning involves, the Green Party platform offers hope through a banner of solutions showing how we would endeavor to serve the nation in crisis and in calm. When the time suddenly arrives for Greens to assume the mantle of leadership, having stepped up, advocated, and participated in shaping our democracy, let us finally be ready to govern.

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Fake President

Image by Alan Davey
Allowing The Donald to adjust to his new upcoming role as POTUS by giving him the benefit of a honeymoon period is tempting; something we would do for most people in the early stages of a new relationship. In this case, since we've been through the courtship stage already and ended up in an unhappy forced marriage, we aren't going to reward the lout with a happy honeymoon. We are going to make him crave an annulment.

Multiple grounds exist for annulling his illegitimate claim to the Presidency.

  • He was elevated to that office with the help of a foreign adversary with whom he has business and political ties.
  • His tax returns over several years may show that he has evaded his responsibility to the U.S., but he refuses to disclose them to the public.
  • His foundation was caught abusing the system and failing to report truthfully to the IRS.
  • He personally dishonors American military heroes by disparaging their sacrifices.
  • The elections were rigged, by his own admission.
  • His conflicts of interest would make him ineligible, under longstanding ethics rules, to participate in any material decisions regarding numerous entities potentially affected by the oval office.
A similar set of disqualifications was compiled by activist Nancy Altman and Ira Lupu, an Emeritus professor of law at George Washington University. They break these down into transgressions of political legitimacy and moral authority and list four presumptions we should all hold regarding communications, activities, subordinates, and decisions of the head huckster. They conclude by calling for his opponents in Congress to set the tone for the resistance movement and for a provisional withdrawal of the customary respect due the office of the President:
At noon on January 20, 2017, we will have a new president. The office of the presidency deserves respect, but the new occupant has relied on illegitimate means to seize power, and he deserves moral contempt.
In his speech, The Great Dictator, Charlie Chaplain urged soldiers to resist brutal leaders who treat them as machines. Trump's objectivist worldview lends itself to such high-handedness. As a career U.S. military officer, it is discomfiting to my imbued sense of rank and honor to treat the President that way, but Trump may well not have been elected President without the nefarious designs of Putin and his den of liars and thieves. The fact that Trump will hardly even acknowledge that Russia was involved in hacking or propaganda marks him as a self-serving crook undeserving of respect at home or abroad.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

A Possible End to The 4th Turning

Lately, Al Qaeda and it's more evil offspring, ISIS, have been the center of attention in the erstwhile named Global War on Terror. In terms of state-sponsored terrorism, however, no organization exceeds the Iranian Quds force record for defiance of the U.S. in the Middle East. All three networks must be defeated to extricate us from our current fourth turning. Expect a lot more U.S. military activity in the region under our next Commander-in-Chief.

According to an op-ed in the the New York Times
Mr. Trump’s immediate position on the Iran deal will be one of the first critical tests for his presidency. 
[If the treaty is abandoned,] because the international coalition that previously supported sanctions on Iran will not be put back together, America’s economic leverage on Iran will be much weaker, increasing the likelihood that Iran will ramp up its nuclear program, and in turn, increasing the risk of American military action.
Photo by Waiting for the Word

In addition to forestalling the Iranian nuclear program, other provocations could trigger an American military attack:
  • Iran attacking any other country
  • Takeover of Iraq by Quds force elements
  • Oil shipment disruptions in the Gulf
  • Terrorist attacks in the U.S.
Rather than satisfy himself with setting back Iran's nuclear and military capabilities for a couple of years, our future President would most likely follow through with an invasion of Iran by a coalition force to ensure regime change that favors U.S. interests in the Middle East. 

Along with Trump's expressed intention to hammer ISIS, regime change in Iran would be key to the resolution of our crisis, allowing us to proceed into the regeneration (Spring) phase of our secular cycle. If I were President, I don't know if I would choose a different course.

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Yeah...

If you could blow up the world with the flick of a switch
Would you do it? 


If you could make everybody poor just so you could be rich
Would you do it? 


If you could watch everybody work while you just lay on your back
Would you do it? 

If you could take all the love without giving any back                                               Would you do it? 

 And so we cannot know ourselves or what we'd really do... 

 
With all your power  

With all your power 

 With all your power 

 What would you do?     

 
- The Flaming Lips


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