It seems that Greece has led western civilization into the first turning of our next saeculum; into a time of calm and lassitude. According to Anne Applebaum,
Perhaps their repeated defeat is partly a consequence of a longer-term problem: loss of arable land. I've never been to Greece, but can attest from my week touring nearby Croatia that the impoverishment of the soil on what had once been productive farms is widespread and grievous to behold. Both countries have declared themselves to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification (UNCCD) to be affected by desertification. Almost all the other countries in Southern Europe have done so, as well.
Both Italy and Spain have experienced political turmoil this year. Perhaps they will go the way of Greece as things shake out. Climate change deserves some credit for pushing desertification, but mostly, socio-economic factors are to blame. Desertification usually occurs over centuries, while the secular cycle takes less than a century. The end of a saeculum can come with a triumph or a defeat. Desertification only makes the latter more likely.
With the U.S. crisis coming to a head as the end of our 4th turning approaches, we aren't bound to the fates of Southern European states, but desertification from climate change on top of other factors is afflicting some of our key economic regions. Like Europe, we will have states that dry up and crumble and others that emerge relatively victorious. We saw a similar dynamic play out at the end of the Civil War.
The rain may fall on the just and unjust alike, but climate change is not an equal opportunity dispenser of rain. Desertification is not the only factor affecting the fate of civilizations, but it will eventually bring down and break apart any nation, especially those that ignore it.
The protracted Greek crisis has led to apathy, exhaustion and a deep conviction that all politics is corrupt. There isn’t huge enthusiasm for any political projects right now.Not all first turnings feel so jaded. Our last one was a time of buoyant confidence and coming together. That was after Johnny came marching home from World War II. Greece must have ended that cycle much the same as they are this one: exhausted and apathetic.
Perhaps their repeated defeat is partly a consequence of a longer-term problem: loss of arable land. I've never been to Greece, but can attest from my week touring nearby Croatia that the impoverishment of the soil on what had once been productive farms is widespread and grievous to behold. Both countries have declared themselves to the UN Convention on Combating Desertification (UNCCD) to be affected by desertification. Almost all the other countries in Southern Europe have done so, as well.
Both Italy and Spain have experienced political turmoil this year. Perhaps they will go the way of Greece as things shake out. Climate change deserves some credit for pushing desertification, but mostly, socio-economic factors are to blame. Desertification usually occurs over centuries, while the secular cycle takes less than a century. The end of a saeculum can come with a triumph or a defeat. Desertification only makes the latter more likely.
With the U.S. crisis coming to a head as the end of our 4th turning approaches, we aren't bound to the fates of Southern European states, but desertification from climate change on top of other factors is afflicting some of our key economic regions. Like Europe, we will have states that dry up and crumble and others that emerge relatively victorious. We saw a similar dynamic play out at the end of the Civil War.
The rain may fall on the just and unjust alike, but climate change is not an equal opportunity dispenser of rain. Desertification is not the only factor affecting the fate of civilizations, but it will eventually bring down and break apart any nation, especially those that ignore it.
