Dock Days on the Horizon

In the Maryland Department of Transportation road show visit to Calvert County, a few local industries were mentioned to point out the value of Maryland's maritime transportation infrastructure. Three businesses, to be exact, seem to be all that they could come up with for this slice of the Southern Maryland peninsula. They were Victor Stanley, Dominion (Cove Point), and Yesteryear Wicker. These businesses employ only about 300 of the approximately 50,000 strong Calvert County workforce.

Nevertheless, change is coming in the next twenty years that will make shipping over water more common. It just won't require Calvert to rely on the Port of Baltimore. Local waterborne cargo businesses will spring up at a multitude of the private docks along the bay and inlets in conjunction with the shift of short haul logistics onto cargo bikes.

Photo by Andrew M Butler

Factors contributing to these changes will include financial and commercial collapse, the peak oil descent, America turning inward as the world closes in around it, and more need of U.S. armed forces and police, burning more fuel in their desperate effort to stop insurgencies, rebellion, and mass pillage. If the latter driving factor does not manifest, then President H.R. Clinton's last gasp efforts to hold on to dominant U.S. influence abroad will also crimp domestic fuel supply, while more Middle East oil flows to the Far East.

Let's just hope that the rising sound and fury is tempered by all parties' adherence to the Paris treaty. Otherwise, the climatological fallout could be worse than the horrors of war.

In any case, the Port of Baltimore is bound to suffer some major losses. Maryland is the third most vulnerable state (behind Florida and Louisiana) to sea level rise. The average period between Superstorm Sandy level catastrophes for the U.S. East coast is now predicted at twenty years and dropping.

Staying in the Red

The key difference in Maryland's new decision-making process for prioritizing transportation projects is that there is a population-weighted scoring system, so that a great majority of our transportation funds will, no doubt, be allocated to projects that serve higher population areas beginning in 2018. While it has been swell coasting along the ribbon of highway that takes us to the nearest major towns eight or more miles either direction, we may have to slow down soon to dodge the potholes.

Investing the bulk of transportation funds in population centers is a change that should have been made long ago, yet Maryland seems to be leading in this respect, compared to states such as Virginia and North Carolina, which have enacted similar goals and measures based decision-making processes. As James Howard Kunstler might put it, you might as well forget your dream of being able to drive to Wal-Mart forever.

It is still possible, though more blatant, for the Governor to make his or her own decisions about transportation projects that don't jive with the priorities coming out of the scoring system. According to the mayor of Baltimore, Governor Hogan has already taken $736 M from projects in the Baltimore area and given the funds to rural transportation projects. However, having an ordered list of projects will, in the future, make any cherry-picking a lot more obvious.

One project already near the construction phase is the purple line light-rail system that will take beltway dwellers from one township to another along a route that skirts the northern edges of Washington, DC. That's something to look forward to (six years from now). Baltimore won't be getting their version of the same thing, however. Buses are going to be the mainstay there. Bicycles are figuring more into the planning of both systems.

I'm all for helping out the frazzled city commuters. In fact, making my humble abode less accessible to them by virtue of degraded roads would make me feel even better down here in Calvert County (in the map above, we're the middle finger resting on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay). Keeping these urbanites satisfied where they are makes it less likely that they will attempt to strike out for the exurbs. I hope they are not forced by circumstances to migrate before the purple line and newer projects make their city lives a bit more bearable.